{"id":3891,"date":"2025-10-12T15:11:44","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T15:11:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3891"},"modified":"2025-10-12T15:12:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T15:12:20","slug":"point-macro-economique-automne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3891","title":{"rendered":"Point Macro \u00e9conomique : Automne"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3891\" class=\"elementor elementor-3891\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f70cbcd elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f70cbcd\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-9a3b3b7\" data-id=\"9a3b3b7\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6a43c42 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6a43c42\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1 data-start=\"324\" data-end=\"371\"><strong data-start=\"329\" data-end=\"369\">Point Macro\u00e9conomique \u2013 Automne 2025<\/strong><\/h1><h3 data-start=\"372\" data-end=\"463\">\u2696\ufe0f Un \u00e9quilibre \u00e9conomique mondial instable, sous surveillance des march\u00e9s obligataires<\/h3><hr data-start=\"465\" data-end=\"468\" \/><h2 data-start=\"470\" data-end=\"534\">\ud83d\udcc9 <strong data-start=\"476\" data-end=\"534\">Croissance mondiale : vers un essoufflement progressif<\/strong><\/h2><p data-start=\"536\" data-end=\"619\">Les <strong data-start=\"540\" data-end=\"578\">signaux d\u2019un ralentissement global<\/strong> de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique se confirment :<\/p><ul data-start=\"621\" data-end=\"1526\"><li data-start=\"621\" data-end=\"904\"><p data-start=\"623\" data-end=\"700\"><strong data-start=\"623\" data-end=\"637\">\u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong> : la premi\u00e8re \u00e9conomie mondiale montre des signes de fatigue :<\/p><ul data-start=\"703\" data-end=\"904\"><li data-start=\"703\" data-end=\"743\"><p data-start=\"705\" data-end=\"743\">Le <strong data-start=\"708\" data-end=\"742\">soutien budg\u00e9taire s\u2019affaiblit<\/strong>,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"746\" data-end=\"826\"><p data-start=\"748\" data-end=\"826\"><strong data-start=\"748\" data-end=\"825\">L\u2019immigration, moteur du dynamisme d\u00e9mographique et de l\u2019emploi, ralentit<\/strong>,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"829\" data-end=\"904\"><p data-start=\"831\" data-end=\"904\">Le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi reste robuste mais moins dynamique qu\u2019en 2022-2023.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li data-start=\"906\" data-end=\"1236\"><p data-start=\"908\" data-end=\"956\"><strong data-start=\"908\" data-end=\"921\">Zone euro<\/strong> : croissance molle et h\u00e9t\u00e9rog\u00e8ne :<\/p><ul data-start=\"959\" data-end=\"1236\"><li data-start=\"959\" data-end=\"1035\"><p data-start=\"961\" data-end=\"1035\">Les grandes \u00e9conomies comme l\u2019Allemagne et la France peinent \u00e0 red\u00e9marrer,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"1038\" data-end=\"1137\"><p data-start=\"1040\" data-end=\"1137\">La <strong data-start=\"1043\" data-end=\"1097\">d\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, militaire et technologique<\/strong> p\u00e8se sur la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"1140\" data-end=\"1236\"><p data-start=\"1142\" data-end=\"1236\"><strong data-start=\"1142\" data-end=\"1172\">La fragmentation politique<\/strong> au sein de l\u2019UE freine toute r\u00e9ponse macro\u00e9conomique concert\u00e9e.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li data-start=\"1238\" data-end=\"1526\"><p data-start=\"1240\" data-end=\"1284\"><strong data-start=\"1240\" data-end=\"1258\">Pays \u00e9mergents<\/strong> : contrastes importants :<\/p><ul data-start=\"1287\" data-end=\"1526\"><li data-start=\"1287\" data-end=\"1419\"><p data-start=\"1289\" data-end=\"1419\">Certains, comme l\u2019Afrique du Sud, parviennent \u00e0 tirer leur \u00e9pingle du jeu via une dette plus saine et une valorisation attractive,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"1422\" data-end=\"1526\"><p data-start=\"1424\" data-end=\"1526\">D\u2019autres restent exclus des portefeuilles, comme l\u2019Argentine, en raison d\u2019une instabilit\u00e9 persistante.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><hr data-start=\"1528\" data-end=\"1531\" \/><h2 data-start=\"1533\" data-end=\"1603\">\ud83d\udcca <strong data-start=\"1539\" data-end=\"1603\">Inflation et politique mon\u00e9taire : la normalisation continue<\/strong><\/h2><ul data-start=\"1605\" data-end=\"2216\"><li data-start=\"1605\" data-end=\"1906\"><p data-start=\"1607\" data-end=\"1679\"><strong data-start=\"1607\" data-end=\"1630\">L\u2019inflation diminue<\/strong> progressivement dans les \u00e9conomies d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es :<\/p><ul data-start=\"1682\" data-end=\"1906\"><li data-start=\"1682\" data-end=\"1780\"><p data-start=\"1684\" data-end=\"1780\">Aux <strong data-start=\"1688\" data-end=\"1702\">\u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong>, le niveau se rapproche de 2 %, sous l\u2019effet du ralentissement de la demande.<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"1783\" data-end=\"1906\"><p data-start=\"1785\" data-end=\"1906\">En <strong data-start=\"1788\" data-end=\"1798\">Europe<\/strong>, l\u2019inflation est ma\u00eetris\u00e9e, notamment gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une consommation plus faible et une d\u00e9sinflation \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li data-start=\"1908\" data-end=\"2216\"><p data-start=\"1910\" data-end=\"1997\"><strong data-start=\"1910\" data-end=\"1931\">Banques centrales<\/strong> : apr\u00e8s les hausses rapides de 2022-2023, la tendance s\u2019inverse :<\/p><ul data-start=\"2000\" data-end=\"2216\"><li data-start=\"2000\" data-end=\"2109\"><p data-start=\"2002\" data-end=\"2109\">Des <strong data-start=\"2006\" data-end=\"2058\">baisses de taux sont anticip\u00e9es dans les 12 mois<\/strong>, bien que les banques centrales restent prudentes.<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"2112\" data-end=\"2216\"><p data-start=\"2114\" data-end=\"2216\">Les march\u00e9s int\u00e8grent un sc\u00e9nario de <strong data-start=\"2151\" data-end=\"2174\">normalisation douce<\/strong>, sans retour aux taux z\u00e9ro \u00e0 court terme.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><hr data-start=\"2218\" data-end=\"2221\" \/><h2 data-start=\"2223\" data-end=\"2286\">\ud83d\udcb0 <strong data-start=\"2229\" data-end=\"2286\">Dette publique : un nouvel axe de fragilit\u00e9 en Europe<\/strong><\/h2><h3 data-start=\"2288\" data-end=\"2328\">Le cas fran\u00e7ais : un signal d\u2019alerte<\/h3><ul data-start=\"2329\" data-end=\"2604\"><li data-start=\"2329\" data-end=\"2400\"><p data-start=\"2331\" data-end=\"2400\"><strong data-start=\"2331\" data-end=\"2366\">D\u00e9ficit public hors de contr\u00f4le<\/strong>, trajectoire budg\u00e9taire instable,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"2401\" data-end=\"2493\"><p data-start=\"2403\" data-end=\"2493\">D\u00e9fis d\u00e9mographiques majeurs : vieillissement, baisse de la natalit\u00e9, poids des retraites,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"2494\" data-end=\"2604\"><p data-start=\"2496\" data-end=\"2604\">R\u00e9sultat : <strong data-start=\"2507\" data-end=\"2560\">retrait de nombreux investisseurs institutionnels<\/strong>, y compris dans des fonds r\u00e9put\u00e9s prudents.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3 data-start=\"2606\" data-end=\"2642\">Dettes souveraines sous pression<\/h3><ul data-start=\"2643\" data-end=\"2938\"><li data-start=\"2643\" data-end=\"2775\"><p data-start=\"2645\" data-end=\"2775\">La dette des \u00c9tats est d\u00e9sormais <strong data-start=\"2678\" data-end=\"2711\">plus ch\u00e8re que les taux swaps<\/strong>, signalant une perte de confiance des march\u00e9s (sauf en Suisse).<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"2776\" data-end=\"2938\"><p data-start=\"2778\" data-end=\"2938\">L\u2019Europe, fragment\u00e9e, devient un <strong data-start=\"2811\" data-end=\"2849\">point de fragilit\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomique<\/strong>, notamment en cas de crise politique ou g\u00e9opolitique (Ukraine, \u00e9nergie, gouvernabilit\u00e9).<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr data-start=\"2940\" data-end=\"2943\" \/><h2 data-start=\"2945\" data-end=\"3011\">\ud83d\udcb1 <strong data-start=\"2951\" data-end=\"3011\">Devises et mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res : recherche d\u2019alternatives<\/strong><\/h2><ul data-start=\"3013\" data-end=\"3364\"><li data-start=\"3013\" data-end=\"3364\"><p data-start=\"3015\" data-end=\"3072\">Le march\u00e9 des changes \u00e9volue dans un climat de d\u00e9fiance :<\/p><ul data-start=\"3075\" data-end=\"3364\"><li data-start=\"3075\" data-end=\"3169\"><p data-start=\"3077\" data-end=\"3169\"><strong data-start=\"3077\" data-end=\"3113\">L\u2019euro et le dollar sont faibles<\/strong> face \u00e0 une perception de gestion \u00e9conomique incertaine,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"3172\" data-end=\"3250\"><p data-start=\"3174\" data-end=\"3250\">Le <strong data-start=\"3177\" data-end=\"3213\">franc suisse est vis\u00e9 par la BNS<\/strong>, qui cherche \u00e0 en att\u00e9nuer la force,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"3253\" data-end=\"3364\"><p data-start=\"3255\" data-end=\"3364\">L\u2019<strong data-start=\"3257\" data-end=\"3277\">or et le bitcoin<\/strong> montent comme <strong data-start=\"3292\" data-end=\"3317\">actifs non souverains<\/strong> dans un monde de m\u00e9fiance vis-\u00e0-vis des \u00c9tats.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><hr data-start=\"3366\" data-end=\"3369\" \/><h2 data-start=\"3371\" data-end=\"3440\">\ud83e\udde9 <strong data-start=\"3377\" data-end=\"3440\">Enjeux macro-financiers pour les investisseurs patrimoniaux<\/strong><\/h2><div class=\"_tableContainer_1rjym_1\"><div class=\"group _tableWrapper_1rjym_13 flex w-fit flex-col-reverse\" tabindex=\"-1\"><table class=\"w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)\" data-start=\"3442\" data-end=\"3895\"><thead data-start=\"3442\" data-end=\"3467\"><tr data-start=\"3442\" data-end=\"3467\"><th data-start=\"3442\" data-end=\"3451\" data-col-size=\"sm\">Enjeux<\/th><th data-start=\"3451\" data-end=\"3467\" data-col-size=\"md\">Implications<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody data-start=\"3494\" data-end=\"3895\"><tr data-start=\"3494\" data-end=\"3578\"><td data-start=\"3494\" data-end=\"3522\" data-col-size=\"sm\"><strong data-start=\"3496\" data-end=\"3521\">Ralentissement global<\/strong><\/td><td data-start=\"3522\" data-end=\"3578\" data-col-size=\"md\">R\u00e9duire l\u2019exposition aux classes d\u2019actifs cycliques.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3579\" data-end=\"3672\"><td data-start=\"3579\" data-end=\"3609\" data-col-size=\"sm\"><strong data-start=\"3581\" data-end=\"3608\">Baisse des taux \u00e0 venir<\/strong><\/td><td data-start=\"3609\" data-end=\"3672\" data-col-size=\"md\">Opportunit\u00e9 sur les obligations longues bien s\u00e9lectionn\u00e9es.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3673\" data-end=\"3776\"><td data-start=\"3673\" data-end=\"3706\" data-col-size=\"sm\"><strong data-start=\"3675\" data-end=\"3705\">Risque souverain en Europe<\/strong><\/td><td data-start=\"3706\" data-end=\"3776\" data-col-size=\"md\">Privil\u00e9gier les gestions actives, s\u00e9lectives et non euro-centr\u00e9es.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3777\" data-end=\"3895\"><td data-start=\"3777\" data-end=\"3820\" data-col-size=\"sm\"><strong data-start=\"3779\" data-end=\"3819\">Volatilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique et mon\u00e9taire<\/strong><\/td><td data-start=\"3820\" data-end=\"3895\" data-col-size=\"md\">Diversification sur actifs tangibles et devises solides (CHF, USD, or).<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><hr data-start=\"3897\" data-end=\"3900\" \/><h2 data-start=\"3902\" data-end=\"3988\">\ud83e\udde0 <strong data-start=\"3908\" data-end=\"3988\">Conclusion Avefi : Vers une gestion plus tactique et g\u00e9ographiquement mobile<\/strong><\/h2><p data-start=\"3990\" data-end=\"4285\">La situation macro\u00e9conomique impose <strong data-start=\"4026\" data-end=\"4087\">plus de s\u00e9lectivit\u00e9, de diversification et de flexibilit\u00e9<\/strong>.<br data-start=\"4088\" data-end=\"4091\" \/>Les <strong data-start=\"4095\" data-end=\"4124\">dettes d\u2019\u00c9tat europ\u00e9ennes<\/strong>, longtemps c\u0153ur des portefeuilles prudents, doivent d\u00e9sormais \u00eatre \u00e9valu\u00e9es avec un \u0153il neuf : <strong data-start=\"4220\" data-end=\"4285\">tous les \u00c9tats ne sont plus \u00e9gaux devant le risque souverain.<\/strong><\/p><p data-start=\"4287\" data-end=\"4317\">Nos allocations privil\u00e9gient :<\/p><ul data-start=\"4318\" data-end=\"4535\"><li data-start=\"4318\" data-end=\"4384\"><p data-start=\"4320\" data-end=\"4384\">Des <strong data-start=\"4324\" data-end=\"4353\">fonds obligataires agiles<\/strong> (long\/short, absolute return),<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"4385\" data-end=\"4420\"><p data-start=\"4387\" data-end=\"4420\">Une <strong data-start=\"4391\" data-end=\"4419\">ouverture hors zone euro<\/strong>,<\/p><\/li><li data-start=\"4421\" data-end=\"4535\"><p data-start=\"4423\" data-end=\"4535\">Une lecture <strong data-start=\"4435\" data-end=\"4482\">macro\u00e9conomique rigoureuse et en temps r\u00e9el<\/strong>, indispensable pour anticiper les points de rupture.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr data-start=\"4537\" data-end=\"4540\" \/><h2 data-start=\"4542\" data-end=\"4564\">\ud83d\udccc Mentions l\u00e9gales<\/h2><p data-start=\"4566\" data-end=\"4767\"><strong data-start=\"4566\" data-end=\"4767\">Attention : Investir comporte des risques, les rendements pass\u00e9s ne garantissent pas les performances futures. Il est recommand\u00e9 de bien comprendre les caract\u00e9ristiques du produit avant d&rsquo;investir.<\/strong><\/p><p data-start=\"4769\" data-end=\"4869\"><strong data-start=\"4769\" data-end=\"4869\">Publication informative et \u00e0 caract\u00e8re publicitaire. Contactez-nous pour plus de renseignements.<\/strong><\/p><hr data-start=\"4871\" data-end=\"4874\" \/><p data-start=\"4876\" data-end=\"5091\"><strong data-start=\"4876\" data-end=\"4897\">Coordonn\u00e9es AVEFI<\/strong><br data-start=\"4897\" data-end=\"4900\" \/>18 bis rue Am\u00e9lie \u2013 75007 Paris<br data-start=\"4931\" data-end=\"4934\" \/>\ud83d\udcde 01 77 13 78 35<br data-start=\"4951\" data-end=\"4954\" \/>\ud83d\udce9 <a class=\"decorated-link cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4957\" data-end=\"4974\">contact@avefi.com<\/a> | <a class=\"decorated-link cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4977\" data-end=\"4994\">gestion@avefi.com<\/a><br data-start=\"4994\" data-end=\"4997\" \/>\ud83d\ude87 M\u00e9tro ligne 8 \u2013 La Tour-Maubourg | RER C \u2013 Invalides<br data-start=\"5052\" data-end=\"5055\" \/>\ud83c\udf10 <a class=\"decorated-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.avefi.com\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5058\" data-end=\"5091\">avefi.com<\/a><\/p><p data-start=\"5093\" data-end=\"5164\">\ud83d\udce9 Pour vous d\u00e9sabonner : <a class=\"decorated-link cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5119\" data-end=\"5164\">contact@avefi.com<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3891"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3894,"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3891\/revisions\/3894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}