{"id":3758,"date":"2025-08-04T13:18:52","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T13:18:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3758"},"modified":"2025-08-04T13:19:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T13:19:18","slug":"risques-geopolitiques-2025-2nd-semestre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3758","title":{"rendered":"Risques g\u00e9opolitiques 2025 : 2nd semestre"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3758\" class=\"elementor elementor-3758\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3e79677 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3e79677\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3e51813\" data-id=\"3e51813\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a2c775 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"4a2c775\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">\u00c9tat des lieux mondial des risques g\u00e9opolitiques \u2013 Point \u00e0 Ao\u00fbt 2025<\/h2><p>Les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques demeurent un facteur cl\u00e9 pour les march\u00e9s et les strat\u00e9gies patrimoniales au second semestre. Voici les principales zones de vigilance selon les rapports du FMI, de l\u2019OCDE, de Stratfor et des publications du Conseil de l&rsquo;Europe.<\/p><h3>\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6 Europe de l&rsquo;Est : Ukraine \/ Russie<\/h3><ul data-spread=\"false\"><li><p><strong>Conflit toujours actif<\/strong>, intensit\u00e9 variable mais front toujours instable<\/p><\/li><li><p>Risque de prolongement ou d\u2019escalade \u00e0 la Bi\u00e9lorussie ou au Caucase<\/p><\/li><li><p>Cons\u00e9quences : pression sur l\u2019\u00e9nergie, fragilit\u00e9 des dettes souveraines locales, incertitude r\u00e9glementaire<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3>\ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf3 Moyen-Orient : Iran \/ Golfe \/ Isra\u00ebl<\/h3><ul data-spread=\"false\"><li><p>Instabilit\u00e9 persistante : tensions dans le Golfe (d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz), activit\u00e9s paramilitaires accrues en Irak\/Syrie<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Iran<\/strong> : situation \u00e9conomique tr\u00e8s d\u00e9grad\u00e9e, menaces cyber et nucl\u00e9aires accrues<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Isra\u00ebl\/Palestine<\/strong> : risque de conflagration r\u00e9gional<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3>\ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddf3 Asie-Pacifique : Chine \/ Ta\u00efwan \/ Mer de Chine \/ Asie du Sud-Est<\/h3><ul data-spread=\"false\"><li><p><strong>Tensions militaires autour de Ta\u00efwan<\/strong> et pr\u00e9sence navale accrue de la Chine dans les eaux philippines (r\u00e9cifs disput\u00e9s, incursions r\u00e9guli\u00e8res)<\/p><\/li><li><p>\u00c9mergence d&rsquo;une coalition maritime ASEAN \/ USA en surveillance passive<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Inde<\/strong> : mont\u00e9e en puissance diplomatique, mais tensions persistantes avec la Chine sur la fronti\u00e8re himalayenne<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Tha\u00eflande<\/strong> : instabilit\u00e9 politique intermittente, mouvements populistes et manifestations pro-r\u00e9formes<\/p><\/li><li><p>Cons\u00e9quences : fragmentation des cha\u00eenes d&rsquo;approvisionnement, d\u00e9localisation industrielle accrue vers le Vietnam \/ Inde<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3>\ud83c\uddf3\ud83c\uddf1 Afrique de l&rsquo;Ouest : Instabilit\u00e9 politique<\/h3><ul data-spread=\"false\"><li><p>Succession de <strong>putschs militaires<\/strong> (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)<\/p><\/li><li><p>Fragilit\u00e9 des institutions, retrait des forces occidentales<\/p><\/li><li><p>Risques : ins\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale, flux migratoires, instabilit\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire (franc CFA)<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3>\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 \u00c9tats-Unis : polarisation interne et incertitude pr\u00e9-\u00e9lectorale<\/h3><ul data-spread=\"false\"><li><p>\u00c9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles 2026 en ligne de mire<\/p><\/li><li><p>Risque de blocages institutionnels, politiques \u00e9conomiques erratiques<\/p><\/li><li><p>Potentiel de tensions sociales fortes en cas de proc\u00e9dures judiciaires li\u00e9es aux anciens pr\u00e9sidents<\/p><\/li><\/ul><div><hr \/><\/div><h3>\u26a0\ufe0f Conclusion patrimoniale : diversifier, s&rsquo;assurer, surveiller<\/h3><p>Dans ce contexte fragment\u00e9, les strat\u00e9gies de <strong>r\u00e9partition g\u00e9ographique<\/strong>, d\u2019<strong>actifs r\u00e9sistants aux chocs<\/strong> (or, obligations souveraines, actifs r\u00e9els) et de <strong>protections contractuelles<\/strong> (garanties en capital, contrats multi-juridictions) sont essentielles.<\/p><p>AVEFI peut vous accompagner dans la <strong>mise en conformit\u00e9 de vos portefeuilles face \u00e0 ces risques r\u00e9gionaux<\/strong>, avec un suivi adapt\u00e9.<\/p><h3>\ud83d\udce7 <a>contact@avefi.com<\/a> | \ud83d\udcde 01 77 13 78 35<\/h3><p><strong>18 bis rue Am\u00e9lie, 75007 Paris<\/strong><br \/>M\u00e9tro La Tour-Maubourg \/ RER C Invalides<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3758"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3758\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3761,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3758\/revisions\/3761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}