{"id":3754,"date":"2025-08-04T13:15:15","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T13:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3754"},"modified":"2025-08-04T13:15:48","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T13:15:48","slug":"comment-aborder-le-2nd-semestre-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3754","title":{"rendered":"Comment aborder le 2nd semestre 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3754\" class=\"elementor elementor-3754\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a6567c9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a6567c9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-2ba1dea\" data-id=\"2ba1dea\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1e10c90 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1e10c90\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/avefi.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/cropped-Capture-d%E2%80%99%C3%A9cran-2018-06-15-%C3%A0-10.19.23.png\" alt=\"Logo AVEFI\" \/><\/p><h1>\ud83c\udf10 News d\u2019Avefi \u2013 Ao\u00fbt 2025<\/h1><h2>\ud83d\udcca Panorama comparatif des r\u00e9gimes fiscaux en Europe : ce qu\u2019il faut savoir avant d\u2019investir ou s&rsquo;expatrier<\/h2><p>(&#8230;)<\/p><hr \/><h2>\ud83d\udcc9 Synth\u00e8se des projections macro-\u00e9conomiques et de march\u00e9 pour le second semestre 2025<\/h2><h3>\ud83c\udf0d Contexte global : vers une stabilisation molle ?<\/h3><p>Les principaux analystes (Bloomberg, Banque mondiale, FMI, OCDE) anticipent un <strong>ralentissement global de la croissance<\/strong> au second semestre 2025. Les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques (Ukraine, Chine\/Asie Pacifique) et la r\u00e9duction progressive du soutien mon\u00e9taire par les banques centrales alimentent une p\u00e9riode d\u2019attentisme.<\/p><ul><li><p><strong>Croissance mondiale pr\u00e9vue<\/strong> : +2,3 % sur 2025 (FMI)<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Inflation<\/strong> : en d\u00e9croissance, mais toujours au-dessus des objectifs des banques centrales (zone euro : ~3,0 %)<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Politique mon\u00e9taire<\/strong> : statu quo envisag\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 fin 2025, puis baisses tr\u00e8s progressives en 2026<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr \/><h3>\ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f Politique des banques centrales : fin du cycle haussier ?<\/h3><table><thead><tr><th>Banque centrale<\/th><th>Taux directeur (ao\u00fbt 2025)<\/th><th>Orientation 2e semestre<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>BCE<\/td><td>4,00 %<\/td><td>Maintien jusqu&rsquo;\u00e0 d\u00e9but 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fed (USA)<\/td><td>5,25 %<\/td><td>Possible baisse au T4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BoE (Royaume-Uni)<\/td><td>5,00 %<\/td><td>Attente des donn\u00e9es inflation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><blockquote><p>\u26a0\ufe0f <strong>Consensus<\/strong> : aucun rel\u00e2chement significatif avant 2026. Les banques veulent s&rsquo;assurer d&rsquo;une inflation durablement ma\u00eetris\u00e9e.<\/p><\/blockquote><hr \/><h3>\ud83d\udcc8 March\u00e9s financiers : sc\u00e9nario de consolidation<\/h3><ul><li><p><strong>Actions<\/strong> : les analystes de Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan et UBS pr\u00e9voient un <strong>march\u00e9 plus volatil<\/strong>, avec peu de gains nets au second semestre. Les secteurs r\u00e9sistants : sant\u00e9, consommation de base, d\u00e9fense.<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Obligations<\/strong> : retour de l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour les obligations souveraines et IG \u00e0 court terme. Les fonds dat\u00e9s restent pris\u00e9s.<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Immobilier cot\u00e9<\/strong> : sous pression, impact\u00e9 par les taux r\u00e9els \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p><\/li><li><p><strong>Or \/ Mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res<\/strong> : tendance stable, mais \u00e0 surveiller en cas de choc g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr \/><h3>\ud83d\udcc6 Sc\u00e9narios macro \u00e0 surveiller<\/h3><table><thead><tr><th>Sc\u00e9nario<\/th><th>Probabilit\u00e9<\/th><th>Cons\u00e9quences<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Atterrissage en douceur<\/td><td>60 %<\/td><td>Croissance molle, taux stables<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9cession technique<\/td><td>25 %<\/td><td>Repli actions, rebond obligations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reprise forte (soft pivot)<\/td><td>15 %<\/td><td>Hausse actions, baisse taux plus rapide<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><hr \/><h2>\ud83d\udcbc AVEFI vous accompagne dans vos arbitrages<\/h2><p>Dans ce contexte incertain mais non alarmant, il est crucial de <strong>diversifier vos allocations<\/strong>, de <strong>pr\u00e9server la liquidit\u00e9<\/strong>, et d\u2019arbitrer entre les classes d\u2019actifs selon vos objectifs et votre horizon.<\/p><p><strong>Exemples d\u2019allocations strat\u00e9giques \u00e0 envisager<\/strong> :<\/p><ul><li><p>Fonds dat\u00e9s \u00e0 2-3 ans<\/p><\/li><li><p>Obligations index\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inflation<\/p><\/li><li><p>Titres \u00e0 capital prot\u00e9g\u00e9 \/ produits structur\u00e9s \u00e0 barri\u00e8res \u00e9lev\u00e9es<\/p><\/li><li><p>Exposition progressive aux actions de qualit\u00e9 (large caps, dividendes)<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p>Pour une analyse personnalis\u00e9e :<\/p><h3>\ud83d\udce7 <a href=\"mailto:contact@avefi.com\">contact@avefi.com<\/a> | \ud83d\udcde 01 77 13 78 35<\/h3><p><strong>18 bis rue Am\u00e9lie, 75007 Paris<\/strong><br \/>M\u00e9tro La Tour-Maubourg \/ RER C Invalides<\/p><hr \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3754"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3757,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3754\/revisions\/3757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}