{"id":3590,"date":"2025-04-10T07:54:42","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T07:54:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3590"},"modified":"2025-04-10T08:18:25","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T08:18:25","slug":"le-09-04-au-bord-de-la-crise-systemique","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3590","title":{"rendered":"Le 09\/04 &#8212; au bord de la crise syst\u00e9mique&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3590\" class=\"elementor elementor-3590\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8ff79ad elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8ff79ad\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-4bd148a\" data-id=\"4bd148a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8857361 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8857361\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1 class=\"\" data-start=\"413\" data-end=\"518\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcc8\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f4c8.svg\"> Tensions sur le march\u00e9 des US Treasuries : quand les \u00ab\u00a0basis trades\u00a0\u00bb attisent les risques syst\u00e9miques<\/h1>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"520\" data-end=\"523\">\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"525\" data-end=\"592\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd0d\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f50d.svg\"> Que s\u2019est-il pass\u00e9 hier sur le march\u00e9 obligataire am\u00e9ricain ?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"594\" data-end=\"831\">Ce mercredi, les rendements des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricaines ont nettement progress\u00e9, atteignant des niveaux in\u00e9dits depuis plusieurs mois sur certaines \u00e9ch\u00e9ances, notamment le 10 ans US Treasury, qui a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 bri\u00e8vement les <strong data-start=\"822\" data-end=\"830\">4,5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"833\" data-end=\"1108\">Cette tension ne s\u2019explique pas uniquement par les perspectives de taux de la R\u00e9serve F\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Elle est aussi amplifi\u00e9e par un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne technique bien connu des professionnels : <strong data-start=\"1013\" data-end=\"1033\">le \u00ab\u00a0basis trade\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong>, un arbitrage utilis\u00e9 massivement par les fonds sp\u00e9culatifs (hedge funds).<\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"1110\" data-end=\"1113\">\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"1115\" data-end=\"1169\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd01\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f501.svg\"> Le \u00ab\u00a0basis trade\u00a0\u00bb : un levier puissant\u2026 et risqu\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1171\" data-end=\"1234\">Le <strong data-start=\"1174\" data-end=\"1191\">\u00ab\u00a0basis trade\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong> consiste \u00e0 exploiter la diff\u00e9rence entre :<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1235\" data-end=\"1402\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1235\" data-end=\"1335\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1237\" data-end=\"1335\">le rendement d\u2019un <strong data-start=\"1255\" data-end=\"1279\">US Treasury physique<\/strong> (obligation r\u00e9elle cot\u00e9e sur le march\u00e9 au comptant), et<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"1336\" data-end=\"1402\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1338\" data-end=\"1402\">le rendement du <strong data-start=\"1354\" data-end=\"1373\">contrat \u00e0 terme<\/strong> sur ce m\u00eame titre (futures).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1404\" data-end=\"1679\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd27\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f527.svg\"> <strong data-start=\"1407\" data-end=\"1430\">Comment \u00e7a marche ?<\/strong><br data-start=\"1430\" data-end=\"1433\">Un fonds ach\u00e8te un bon du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 long terme, tout en vendant \u00e0 d\u00e9couvert un contrat \u00e0 terme \u00e9quivalent. L\u2019objectif : capturer un \u00ab\u00a0spread\u00a0\u00bb (\u00e9cart de prix), g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement tr\u00e8s faible, mais <strong data-start=\"1621\" data-end=\"1655\">amplifi\u00e9 par l\u2019effet de levier<\/strong>, souvent <strong data-start=\"1665\" data-end=\"1678\">x20 \u00e0 x50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1681\" data-end=\"1865\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcb0\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f4b0.svg\"> C\u2019est un arbitrage classique, mais devenu colossal : selon les derni\u00e8res donn\u00e9es de la R\u00e9serve F\u00e9d\u00e9rale, la taille de ces positions atteindrait <strong data-start=\"1828\" data-end=\"1864\">plus de 600 milliards de dollars<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"1867\" data-end=\"1870\">\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"1872\" data-end=\"1918\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\u26a0\ufe0f\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/26a0.svg\"> Le talon d\u2019Achille : les appels de marge<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1920\" data-end=\"2092\">Le danger latent vient du fait que ce type d\u2019op\u00e9ration est <strong data-start=\"1979\" data-end=\"2002\">financ\u00e9 par emprunt<\/strong>, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement aupr\u00e8s de grandes banques ou courtiers via des pr\u00eats collat\u00e9ralis\u00e9s (repo).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2094\" data-end=\"2307\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83e\udde8\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f9e8.svg\"> Si les prix des obligations baissent (et donc les rendements montent), les pertes latentes s\u2019accumulent, et les fonds doivent d\u00e9poser <strong data-start=\"2231\" data-end=\"2254\">des appels de marge<\/strong>. En cas de variation brutale, cela peut d\u00e9clencher :<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2308\" data-end=\"2462\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2308\" data-end=\"2400\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2310\" data-end=\"2400\">une <strong data-start=\"2314\" data-end=\"2330\">vente forc\u00e9e<\/strong> des obligations d\u00e9tenues (ce qui accentue encore la baisse des prix),<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"2401\" data-end=\"2462\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2403\" data-end=\"2462\">un <strong data-start=\"2406\" data-end=\"2430\">effet boule de neige<\/strong> sur tout le march\u00e9 obligataire.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2464\" data-end=\"2744\">Ce risque est <strong data-start=\"2478\" data-end=\"2492\">syst\u00e9mique<\/strong>, car il repose sur la solidit\u00e9 des contreparties et la liquidit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s repo. Plusieurs responsables de la Banque des R\u00e8glements Internationaux (BRI) et de la Fed ont r\u00e9cemment exprim\u00e9 leur <strong data-start=\"2688\" data-end=\"2713\">inqui\u00e9tude croissante<\/strong> face \u00e0 l\u2019ampleur de ce levier.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"2746\" data-end=\"2749\">\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"2751\" data-end=\"2800\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83c\udfe6\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f3e6.svg\"> Risque syst\u00e9mique : un possible \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9j\u00e0-vu\u00a0\u00bb ?<\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2802\" data-end=\"3014\">Ce type de tension n\u2019est pas sans rappeler le cas du fonds <strong data-start=\"2861\" data-end=\"2900\">Long Term Capital Management (LTCM)<\/strong> en 1998, dont les arbitrages massivement financ\u00e9s par effet de levier avaient failli entra\u00eener une crise globale.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3016\" data-end=\"3238\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd0d\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f50d.svg\"> Aujourd\u2019hui, les positions sont plus diversifi\u00e9es et surveill\u00e9es, mais l\u2019opacit\u00e9 du shadow banking et la <strong data-start=\"3124\" data-end=\"3155\">fragilit\u00e9 des contreparties<\/strong> (notamment certaines entit\u00e9s non r\u00e9gul\u00e9es) demeurent des angles morts inqui\u00e9tants.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"3240\" data-end=\"3243\">\n<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"3245\" data-end=\"3297\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83c\udfaf\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f3af.svg\"> Que faut-il en retenir pour votre allocation ?<\/h2>\n<ul data-start=\"3299\" data-end=\"3668\">\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3299\" data-end=\"3414\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3301\" data-end=\"3414\"><strong data-start=\"3301\" data-end=\"3330\">La volatilit\u00e9 obligataire<\/strong> reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e : m\u00eame sur des actifs r\u00e9put\u00e9s sans risque comme les bons du Tr\u00e9sor US.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3415\" data-end=\"3534\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3417\" data-end=\"3534\"><strong data-start=\"3417\" data-end=\"3446\">Les ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes techniques<\/strong> peuvent impacter fortement les prix, m\u00eame en dehors des d\u00e9cisions de banques centrales.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-start=\"3535\" data-end=\"3668\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3537\" data-end=\"3668\">La <strong data-start=\"3540\" data-end=\"3559\">diversification<\/strong> et la <strong data-start=\"3566\" data-end=\"3600\">gestion du risque de liquidit\u00e9<\/strong> sont plus que jamais cruciales pour vos portefeuilles obligataires.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"3670\" data-end=\"3673\">\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3675\" data-end=\"3847\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd17\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f517.svg\"> Pour plus d\u2019explications sur les cons\u00e9quences de ces mouvements sur vos investissements ou nos solutions obligataires alternatives, <strong data-start=\"3810\" data-end=\"3847\">contactez votre conseiller Avefi.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr class=\"\" data-start=\"3849\" data-end=\"3852\">\n<p><strong data-start=\"3924\" data-end=\"3972\">Mentions l\u00e9gales et informations pratiques :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3974\" data-end=\"4189\">Publication \u00e0 caract\u00e8re informatif et publicitaire. Ce document ne constitue pas une recommandation personnalis\u00e9e. Pour toute d\u00e9cision d\u2019investissement, il est recommand\u00e9 de se rapprocher de son conseiller habituel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4191\" data-end=\"4444\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udccd\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f4cd.svg\"> <strong data-start=\"4194\" data-end=\"4238\">Avefi \u2013 Conseil en gestion de patrimoine<\/strong><br data-start=\"4238\" data-end=\"4241\">18 bis rue Am\u00e9lie \u2013 75007 Paris<br data-start=\"4272\" data-end=\"4275\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcde\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f4de.svg\"> T\u00e9l. : 01 77 13 78 35<br data-start=\"4299\" data-end=\"4302\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udce7\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f4e7.svg\"> <a rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4305\" data-end=\"4322\">contact@avefi.com<\/a> \u2013 <a rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4325\" data-end=\"4342\">gestion@avefi.com<\/a><br data-start=\"4342\" data-end=\"4345\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\ude87\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f687.svg\"> M\u00e9tro ligne 8 : La Tour-Maubourg | RER C : Invalides<br data-start=\"4400\" data-end=\"4403\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83c\udf10\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f310.svg\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.avefi.com\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4406\" data-end=\"4444\">www.avefi.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4446\" data-end=\"4536\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd17\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/1f517.svg\"> Pour se d\u00e9sabonner, envoyez un e-mail \u00e0 : <a rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"4491\" data-end=\"4536\">contact@avefi.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"4538\" data-end=\"4742\"><img decoding=\"async\" draggable=\"false\" role=\"img\" class=\"emoji\" alt=\"\u26a0\ufe0f\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.0.3\/svg\/26a0.svg\"> <strong data-start=\"4541\" data-end=\"4556\">Attention :<\/strong> Investir comporte des risques. Les rendements pass\u00e9s ne garantissent pas les performances futures. Il est recommand\u00e9 de bien comprendre les caract\u00e9ristiques du produit avant d&rsquo;investir.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3590"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3594,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3590\/revisions\/3594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}