{"id":3558,"date":"2025-04-03T12:04:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T12:04:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3558"},"modified":"2025-04-03T12:05:27","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T12:05:27","slug":"combien-de-temps-ca-dure-un-krach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3558","title":{"rendered":"Combien de temps ca dure un krach?"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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\ud83d\udd3b Dur\u00e9e d\u2019un krach boursier<\/strong><\/h3>

Un krach boursier<\/em> se d\u00e9finit comme une chute brutale et significative des march\u00e9s (souvent >20%). Sa dur\u00e9e<\/strong> d\u00e9pend de la cause (exog\u00e8ne, endog\u00e8ne), du contexte macro\u00e9conomique, et des r\u00e9ponses politiques et mon\u00e9taires.<\/p>

Type de krach<\/strong><\/th>Dur\u00e9e de la chute<\/strong><\/th>Dur\u00e9e moyenne de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Choc exog\u00e8ne (pand\u00e9mie, guerre)<\/td>1-6 mois<\/td>1 \u00e0 2 ans<\/td><\/tr>
Choc endog\u00e8ne (bulles, cr\u00e9dit)<\/td>6-24 mois<\/td>4 \u00e0 10 ans<\/td><\/tr>
Crise syst\u00e9mique (1929, 2008)<\/td>>2 ans<\/td>>10 ans (sans intervention massive)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>

\ud83d\udcc9 Exemples historiques notables<\/strong><\/h3>
Krach<\/strong><\/th>D\u00e9but<\/strong><\/th>Chute max S&P 500<\/strong><\/th>Dur\u00e9e de chute<\/strong><\/th>Temps de recovery<\/strong><\/th>Commentaires<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
1929 (Grande D\u00e9pression)<\/strong><\/td>Oct. 1929<\/td>-86%<\/td>2 ans<\/td>~25 ans (jusqu\u2019en 1954)<\/td>Crise syst\u00e9mique sans soutien budg\u00e9taire ou mon\u00e9taire initial.<\/td><\/tr>
2000 (bulle Internet)<\/strong><\/td>Mars 2000<\/td>-49%<\/td>2.5 ans<\/td>~7 ans (2007)<\/td>\u00c9clatement d’une bulle sp\u00e9culative sur le Nasdaq.<\/td><\/tr>
2008 (crise subprime)<\/strong><\/td>Oct. 2007<\/td>-57%<\/td>17 mois<\/td>~4.5 ans (mars 2013)<\/td>Forte intervention de la Fed et plans de relance massifs.<\/td><\/tr>
2020 (COVID-19)<\/strong><\/td>F\u00e9vr. 2020<\/td>-34%<\/td>1 mois<\/td>~6 mois (ao\u00fbt 2020)<\/td>R\u00e9ponse mon\u00e9taire\/fiscale ultra-rapide.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>

Sources : Bloomberg, Reuters, Morningstar, Trading Economics<\/em>.<\/p>

\ud83d\udcca Comparaison par classes d\u2019actifs<\/strong><\/h3>
Classe d\u2019actifs<\/strong><\/th>Comportement en p\u00e9riode de krach<\/strong><\/th>Temps de recovery moyen<\/strong><\/th>Remarques<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Actions (S&P 500)<\/strong><\/td>Volatilit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e, forte baisse<\/td>1 \u00e0 10 ans<\/td>D\u00e9pend du secteur (tech > recovery, finance <)<\/td><\/tr>
Obligations souveraines (US Treasuries)<\/strong><\/td>Valeur refuge, souvent en hausse<\/td>Instantan\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme<\/td>Corr\u00e9l\u00e9es aux baisses de taux<\/td><\/tr>
Or<\/strong><\/td>Reflet de l\u2019aversion au risque<\/td>Tr\u00e8s variable (mois \u00e0 ann\u00e9es)<\/td>Performant en crise inflationniste ou g\u00e9opolitique<\/td><\/tr>
Immobilier (REITs)<\/strong><\/td>Baisse avec d\u00e9calage, recovery lent<\/td>2 \u00e0 6 ans<\/td>Sensible aux taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/td><\/tr>
Crypto-actifs<\/strong><\/td>Extr\u00eame volatilit\u00e9, corr\u00e9lation aux techs<\/td>Non stabilis\u00e9<\/td>Pas encore de pattern historique fiable<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>

\u23f3 Temps moyen de recovery S&P 500 (selon ampleur de la baisse)<\/strong><\/h3>
Amplitude de baisse<\/strong><\/th>Temps moyen de recovery<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
-10% \u00e0 -20% (correction)<\/td>3 \u00e0 6 mois<\/td><\/tr>
-20% \u00e0 -40% (bear market mod\u00e9r\u00e9)<\/td>1 \u00e0 2 ans<\/td><\/tr>
>-40% (krach profond)<\/td>4 \u00e0 10 ans<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div>

(Source : Morningstar, Fidelity, Bloomberg<\/em>)<\/p>

\ud83e\udde0 Analyse critique<\/strong><\/h3>

  • Les temps de recovery sont fortement influenc\u00e9s par la r\u00e9ponse politique<\/strong> (taux, QE, stimulus).<\/p><\/li>

  • Depuis les ann\u00e9es 2010, les recoveries sont plus rapides gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des interventions massives<\/strong> (Fed, BCE).<\/p><\/li>

  • L\u2019explosion de l\u2019acc\u00e8s au march\u00e9 (ETF, trading mobile) accentue la volatilit\u00e9 mais aussi la vitesse de reprise.<\/p><\/li>

  • Attention : une recovery de l\u2019indice ne refl\u00e8te pas forc\u00e9ment la sant\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle<\/strong>.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3558"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3558\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3561,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3558\/revisions\/3561"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}