{"id":3537,"date":"2025-03-30T09:41:12","date_gmt":"2025-03-30T09:41:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3537"},"modified":"2025-03-30T09:41:33","modified_gmt":"2025-03-30T09:41:33","slug":"trump-mar-a-lago-une-politique-economique-sous-tension","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3537","title":{"rendered":"Trump, Mar-a-Lago : : une politique \u00e9conomique sous tension"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3537\" class=\"elementor elementor-3537\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-46eae0b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"46eae0b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3442891\" data-id=\"3442891\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-348e575 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"348e575\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"444\" data-end=\"503\">\ud83c\udfdb\ufe0f <strong data-start=\"451\" data-end=\"503\">Le contexte : Mar-a-Lago, nouveau QG id\u00e9ologique<\/strong><\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"505\" data-end=\"766\">Depuis son domaine de Mar-a-Lago en Floride, Donald Trump fa\u00e7onne sa strat\u00e9gie de retour politique. \u00c0 l\u2019approche de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle am\u00e9ricaine de novembre 2024, ses discours y sont devenus des laboratoires id\u00e9ologiques. Deux axes forts s\u2019en d\u00e9gagent :<\/p><ul data-start=\"767\" data-end=\"939\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"767\" data-end=\"833\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"769\" data-end=\"833\">Une volont\u00e9 de <strong data-start=\"784\" data-end=\"832\">r\u00e9industrialisation agressive des \u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong>,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"834\" data-end=\"939\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"836\" data-end=\"939\">Et une strat\u00e9gie mon\u00e9taire et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique visant \u00e0 <strong data-start=\"887\" data-end=\"938\">renforcer la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique nationale<\/strong>.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"941\" data-end=\"944\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"946\" data-end=\"988\">\ud83d\udcb5 <strong data-start=\"952\" data-end=\"988\">Un dollar fort ? Pas sous Trump.<\/strong><\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"990\" data-end=\"1070\">Trump a toujours d\u00e9fendu une politique de <strong data-start=\"1032\" data-end=\"1049\">dollar faible<\/strong>, dans l\u2019optique de :<\/p><ul data-start=\"1071\" data-end=\"1212\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1071\" data-end=\"1112\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1073\" data-end=\"1112\">Favoriser les exportations am\u00e9ricaines,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1113\" data-end=\"1145\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1115\" data-end=\"1145\">R\u00e9duire le d\u00e9ficit commercial,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1146\" data-end=\"1212\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1148\" data-end=\"1212\">Et affaiblir les grandes puissances rivales, notamment la Chine.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1214\" data-end=\"1243\">\u2696\ufe0f Les outils envisag\u00e9s :<\/h3><ul data-start=\"1244\" data-end=\"1509\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1244\" data-end=\"1343\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1246\" data-end=\"1343\">Pressions sur la <strong data-start=\"1263\" data-end=\"1283\">R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale<\/strong> pour abaisser les taux (m\u00eame si celle-ci est ind\u00e9pendante),<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1344\" data-end=\"1509\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1346\" data-end=\"1509\"><strong data-start=\"1346\" data-end=\"1376\">Risque de guerre mon\u00e9taire<\/strong> si des mesures \u00e9taient prises pour affaiblir artificiellement le dollar (interventions sur les march\u00e9s ? D\u00e9clarations mena\u00e7antes ?).<\/p><\/li><\/ul><blockquote data-start=\"1511\" data-end=\"1635\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1513\" data-end=\"1635\">\ud83d\udd0e <em data-start=\"1516\" data-end=\"1597\">\u00ab\u00a0A strong dollar sounds good, but it makes our products more expensive abroad.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em> \u2014 D. Trump, Mar-a-Lago, janvier 2024.<\/p><\/blockquote><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1637\" data-end=\"1668\">\u26a0\ufe0f Cons\u00e9quences possibles :<\/h3><ul data-start=\"1669\" data-end=\"1838\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1669\" data-end=\"1708\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1671\" data-end=\"1708\">Augmentation de l\u2019inflation import\u00e9e,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1709\" data-end=\"1791\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1711\" data-end=\"1791\">Diminution de l\u2019attrait des actifs en dollars (obligations, march\u00e9s financiers),<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1792\" data-end=\"1838\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1794\" data-end=\"1838\">Volatilit\u00e9 accrue sur les march\u00e9s de change.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1840\" data-end=\"2003\">\ud83d\udcc8 <strong data-start=\"1843\" data-end=\"1858\">Opportunit\u00e9<\/strong> : Cela pourrait b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier aux exportateurs europ\u00e9ens et aux m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux (or, argent), traditionnellement haussiers en cas de dollar faible.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"2005\" data-end=\"2008\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"2010\" data-end=\"2061\">\ud83d\udee2\ufe0f <strong data-start=\"2017\" data-end=\"2061\">\u00c9nergie : retour du \u00ab\u00a0Drill, Baby, Drill\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong><\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2063\" data-end=\"2247\">L\u2019autre pilier de la doctrine Trump repose sur <strong data-start=\"2110\" data-end=\"2140\">l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/strong>, voire l\u2019<strong data-start=\"2150\" data-end=\"2174\">h\u00e9g\u00e9monie p\u00e9troli\u00e8re<\/strong>. Son slogan embl\u00e9matique \u00ab\u00a0Drill, Baby, Drill\u00a0\u00bb refl\u00e8te une politique de :<\/p><ul data-start=\"2248\" data-end=\"2513\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2248\" data-end=\"2346\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2250\" data-end=\"2346\"><strong data-start=\"2250\" data-end=\"2309\">Relance massive de l\u2019exploitation p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et gazi\u00e8re<\/strong>, y compris dans les zones f\u00e9d\u00e9rales,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2347\" data-end=\"2443\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2349\" data-end=\"2443\">D\u00e9r\u00e9gulation environnementale pour stimuler l\u2019investissement priv\u00e9 dans les \u00e9nergies fossiles,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2444\" data-end=\"2513\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2446\" data-end=\"2513\">R\u00e9duction des freins \u00e0 l\u2019exportation de gaz naturel liqu\u00e9fi\u00e9 (GNL).<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"2515\" data-end=\"2537\">Objectif affich\u00e9 :<\/h3><blockquote data-start=\"2538\" data-end=\"2611\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2540\" data-end=\"2611\">\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 \u00ab\u00a0America First means American Oil First!\u00a0\u00bb \u2013 D. Trump, f\u00e9vrier 2025<\/p><\/blockquote><ul data-start=\"2613\" data-end=\"2782\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2613\" data-end=\"2698\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2615\" data-end=\"2698\"><strong data-start=\"2615\" data-end=\"2667\">R\u00e9tablir les USA comme leader mondial du p\u00e9trole<\/strong>, face \u00e0 l\u2019OPEP et \u00e0 la Russie.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2699\" data-end=\"2782\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2701\" data-end=\"2782\"><strong data-start=\"2701\" data-end=\"2755\">Faire baisser les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong> pour soutenir l\u2019industrie.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"2784\" data-end=\"2815\">Cons\u00e9quences potentielles :<\/h3><ul data-start=\"2816\" data-end=\"3056\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2816\" data-end=\"2880\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2818\" data-end=\"2880\"><strong data-start=\"2818\" data-end=\"2879\">Recul temporaire des politiques de transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/strong>,<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2881\" data-end=\"2954\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2883\" data-end=\"2954\">Hausse des \u00e9missions de CO\u2082, avec des tensions diplomatiques (UE, COP),<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2955\" data-end=\"3056\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2957\" data-end=\"3056\">Impact baissier \u00e0 court terme sur les prix du p\u00e9trole, <strong data-start=\"3012\" data-end=\"3055\">sauf si la demande mondiale reste forte<\/strong>.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"3058\" data-end=\"3061\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"3063\" data-end=\"3143\">\ud83e\uddfe <strong data-start=\"3069\" data-end=\"3143\">Le Japon vend massivement des obligations am\u00e9ricaines : un signal fort<\/strong><\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3145\" data-end=\"3423\">En d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025, le <strong data-start=\"3171\" data-end=\"3266\">minist\u00e8re japonais des Finances a r\u00e9duit son exposition aux obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain<\/strong>, atteignant le niveau le plus bas depuis 2019. Cela marque un <strong data-start=\"3329\" data-end=\"3383\">tournant dans la gestion de ses r\u00e9serves de change<\/strong> et envoie un message clair aux march\u00e9s.<\/p><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"3425\" data-end=\"3451\">Pourquoi cette vente ?<\/h3><ul data-start=\"3452\" data-end=\"3750\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3452\" data-end=\"3522\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3454\" data-end=\"3522\">N\u00e9cessit\u00e9 de <strong data-start=\"3467\" data-end=\"3486\">soutenir le yen<\/strong>, fortement affaibli face au dollar.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3523\" data-end=\"3637\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3525\" data-end=\"3637\">Arbitrage en faveur de <strong data-start=\"3548\" data-end=\"3574\">liquidit\u00e9s domestiques<\/strong> pour pr\u00e9parer un \u00e9ventuel cycle de remont\u00e9e des taux au Japon.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3638\" data-end=\"3750\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3640\" data-end=\"3750\">M\u00e9fiance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la trajectoire budg\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricaine et de la <strong data-start=\"3708\" data-end=\"3736\">mon\u00e9tisation de la dette<\/strong> \u00e0 long terme.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"3752\" data-end=\"3778\">Quelles cons\u00e9quences ?<\/h3><ul data-start=\"3779\" data-end=\"4001\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3779\" data-end=\"3851\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3781\" data-end=\"3851\">Pression haussi\u00e8re sur les taux longs am\u00e9ricains (10 ans US Treasury).<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3852\" data-end=\"3933\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3854\" data-end=\"3933\">Fragilisation de la demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re pour le financement du d\u00e9ficit am\u00e9ricain.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3934\" data-end=\"4001\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3936\" data-end=\"4001\">Renforcement potentiel de la <strong data-start=\"3965\" data-end=\"4000\">volatilit\u00e9 obligataire mondiale<\/strong>.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4003\" data-end=\"4246\">\ud83d\udcc9 Pour les investisseurs europ\u00e9ens : cela pourrait affaiblir la dette am\u00e9ricaine \u00e0 long terme, tout en renfor\u00e7ant l\u2019attractivit\u00e9 des <strong data-start=\"4137\" data-end=\"4181\">obligations europ\u00e9ennes Investment Grade<\/strong> ou des <strong data-start=\"4189\" data-end=\"4229\">fonds obligataires \u00e0 duration courte<\/strong>, plus d\u00e9fensifs.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"4248\" data-end=\"4251\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"4253\" data-end=\"4305\">\ud83c\udf10 Quel impact pour les investisseurs europ\u00e9ens ?<\/h2><div class=\"overflow-x-auto contain-inline-size\"><table data-start=\"4307\" data-end=\"4896\"><thead data-start=\"4307\" data-end=\"4384\"><tr data-start=\"4307\" data-end=\"4384\"><th data-start=\"4307\" data-end=\"4342\">Axe Trumpiste \/ Japonais<\/th><th data-start=\"4342\" data-end=\"4358\">Impact global<\/th><th data-start=\"4358\" data-end=\"4373\">Opportunit\u00e9s<\/th><th data-start=\"4373\" data-end=\"4384\">Risques<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody data-start=\"4463\" data-end=\"4896\"><tr data-start=\"4463\" data-end=\"4600\"><td>Politique dollar faible<\/td><td>Tensions mon\u00e9taires<\/td><td>Or, actions exportatrices, devises \u00e9mergentes<\/td><td>Volatilit\u00e9, pertes de change<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"4601\" data-end=\"4739\"><td>Expansion fossile<\/td><td>Offre accrue d\u2019\u00e9nergie<\/td><td>\u00c9nergie US, GNL, industrie lourde<\/td><td>ESG en recul, instabilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"4740\" data-end=\"4896\"><td>Vente des bons du Tr\u00e9sor par le Japon<\/td><td>Tensions sur le financement US<\/td><td>Obligations europ\u00e9ennes, diversification<\/td><td>Hausse des taux US, baisse du dollar<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"4898\" data-end=\"4901\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"4903\" data-end=\"4935\">\ud83d\udccc Notre analyse patrimoniale<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4937\" data-end=\"5075\">\ud83d\udd37 Rester <strong data-start=\"4947\" data-end=\"4978\">expos\u00e9 aux actifs en dollar<\/strong> avec prudence, en privil\u00e9giant des durations plus courtes et une couverture du risque de change.<\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"5077\" data-end=\"5186\">\ud83d\udd36 \u00c9tudier les opportunit\u00e9s dans l\u2019<strong data-start=\"5112\" data-end=\"5138\">\u00e9nergie traditionnelle<\/strong>, mais les int\u00e9grer dans un cadre ESG \u00e9quilibr\u00e9.<\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"5188\" data-end=\"5337\">\ud83d\udd37 Privil\u00e9gier l\u2019<strong data-start=\"5205\" data-end=\"5235\">or et les actifs tangibles<\/strong> comme couverture contre la volatilit\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire et la perte de confiance dans les dettes souveraines.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"5339\" data-end=\"5342\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"5344\" data-end=\"5363\">\ud83c\udfaf En conclusion<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"5365\" data-end=\"5722\">Entre la doctrine \u00ab\u00a0Drill, Baby, Drill\u00a0\u00bb, la politique mon\u00e9taire agressive annonc\u00e9e par Trump et les signaux envoy\u00e9s par le Japon, le climat \u00e9conomique mondial de 2025 devient plus incertain. Ces tensions pourraient cr\u00e9er des <strong data-start=\"5589\" data-end=\"5627\">fen\u00eatres d\u2019opportunit\u00e9s s\u00e9lectives<\/strong>, mais appellent une vigilance renforc\u00e9e dans la construction de votre allocation patrimoniale.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"5724\" data-end=\"5727\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"5729\" data-end=\"5750\">\u26a0 Mentions l\u00e9gales<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"5752\" data-end=\"6013\"><strong data-start=\"5752\" data-end=\"5857\">Publication informative et publicitaire \u2013 ne constitue pas un conseil en investissement personnalis\u00e9.<\/strong><br data-start=\"5857\" data-end=\"5860\" \/>Pour toute question ou conseil adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 votre situation personnelle, contactez-nous.<br data-start=\"5944\" data-end=\"5947\" \/><strong data-start=\"5947\" data-end=\"5965\">D\u00e9sinscription<\/strong> : <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5968\" data-end=\"6013\">contact@avefi.com<\/a><\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"6015\" data-end=\"6261\">\ud83d\udccd <strong data-start=\"6018\" data-end=\"6062\">Avefi \u2013 Conseil en Gestion de Patrimoine<\/strong><br data-start=\"6062\" data-end=\"6065\" \/>18 bis rue Am\u00e9lie \u2013 75007 Paris<br data-start=\"6096\" data-end=\"6099\" \/>\ud83d\udcde 01 77 13 78 35<br data-start=\"6116\" data-end=\"6119\" \/>\u2709\ufe0f <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"6122\" data-end=\"6139\">contact@avefi.com<\/a> \u2013 <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"6142\" data-end=\"6159\">gestion@avefi.com<\/a><br data-start=\"6159\" data-end=\"6162\" \/>\ud83d\ude87 M\u00e9tro ligne 8 (La Tour-Maubourg) \/ RER C (Invalides)<br data-start=\"6217\" data-end=\"6220\" \/>\ud83c\udf10 <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.avefi.com\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"6223\" data-end=\"6261\">www.avefi.com<\/a><\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"6263\" data-end=\"6464\"><strong data-start=\"6263\" data-end=\"6464\">Attention : Investir comporte des risques, les rendements pass\u00e9s ne garantissent pas les performances futures. Il est recommand\u00e9 de bien comprendre les caract\u00e9ristiques du produit avant d&rsquo;investir.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3537"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3540,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3537\/revisions\/3540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}