{"id":3533,"date":"2025-03-30T09:08:22","date_gmt":"2025-03-30T09:08:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3533"},"modified":"2025-03-30T09:09:02","modified_gmt":"2025-03-30T09:09:02","slug":"panorama-des-marches-financiers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/?p=3533","title":{"rendered":"Panorama des march\u00e9s financiers"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3533\" class=\"elementor elementor-3533\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f60f12a elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f60f12a\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8c78965\" data-id=\"8c78965\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-78ca0f4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"78ca0f4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"364\" data-end=\"420\">\ud83d\udd0d Contexte g\u00e9n\u00e9ral : entre r\u00e9silience et incertitude<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"422\" data-end=\"724\">L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025 d\u00e9bute sous le signe d\u2019un <strong data-start=\"461\" data-end=\"512\">ralentissement mod\u00e9r\u00e9 de la croissance mondiale<\/strong>, avec une normalisation progressive de l\u2019inflation et une stabilisation des politiques mon\u00e9taires. Le FMI table sur une croissance mondiale autour de <strong data-start=\"663\" data-end=\"672\">3,1 %<\/strong>, avec des \u00e9carts marqu\u00e9s entre zones g\u00e9ographiques.<\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"726\" data-end=\"795\">Les march\u00e9s sont d\u00e9sormais tourn\u00e9s vers deux grandes interrogations :<\/p><ul data-start=\"796\" data-end=\"957\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"796\" data-end=\"868\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"798\" data-end=\"868\"><strong data-start=\"798\" data-end=\"834\">Le calendrier de baisse des taux<\/strong> par les grandes banques centrales<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"869\" data-end=\"957\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"957\"><strong data-start=\"871\" data-end=\"918\">La robustesse des r\u00e9sultats des entreprises<\/strong>, notamment dans les secteurs cycliques<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"959\" data-end=\"962\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"964\" data-end=\"1004\">\ud83d\udcbc <strong data-start=\"970\" data-end=\"1004\">\u00c9volution par classes d&rsquo;actifs<\/strong><\/h2><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1006\" data-end=\"1072\">\ud83d\udcc8 Actions : regain d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat malgr\u00e9 des valorisations tendues<\/h3><ul data-start=\"1073\" data-end=\"1483\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1073\" data-end=\"1224\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1075\" data-end=\"1224\"><strong data-start=\"1075\" data-end=\"1089\">\u00c9tats-Unis<\/strong> : le S&amp;P 500 atteint de nouveaux sommets, port\u00e9 par les valeurs technologiques et l\u2019espoir d\u2019une d\u00e9tente mon\u00e9taire au second semestre.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1225\" data-end=\"1323\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1227\" data-end=\"1323\"><strong data-start=\"1227\" data-end=\"1237\">Europe<\/strong> : des valorisations plus attractives, mais des perspectives \u00e9conomiques plus faibles.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1324\" data-end=\"1483\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1326\" data-end=\"1483\"><strong data-start=\"1326\" data-end=\"1347\">March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents<\/strong> : attractivit\u00e9 croissante, notamment en Inde et en Am\u00e9rique Latine, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la r\u00e9silience de la consommation et des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1485\" data-end=\"1503\"><strong data-start=\"1485\" data-end=\"1503\">Opportunit\u00e9s :<\/strong><\/p><ul data-start=\"1504\" data-end=\"1628\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1504\" data-end=\"1571\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1506\" data-end=\"1571\">Intelligence artificielle, cybers\u00e9curit\u00e9, transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1572\" data-end=\"1628\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1574\" data-end=\"1628\">Strat\u00e9gies de dividende pour s\u00e9curiser les rendements.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1630\" data-end=\"1643\"><strong data-start=\"1630\" data-end=\"1643\">Risques :<\/strong><\/p><ul data-start=\"1644\" data-end=\"1741\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1644\" data-end=\"1683\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1646\" data-end=\"1683\">Pressions r\u00e9glementaires sur la tech.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1684\" data-end=\"1741\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1686\" data-end=\"1741\">Fragilit\u00e9 g\u00e9opolitique (Ukraine, Moyen-Orient, Ta\u00efwan).<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"1743\" data-end=\"1746\" \/><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1748\" data-end=\"1799\">\ud83d\udcb5 Obligations : retour en gr\u00e2ce des taux fixes<\/h3><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1800\" data-end=\"1895\">Avec des taux directeurs \u00e9lev\u00e9s mais stabilis\u00e9s, les obligations <strong data-start=\"1865\" data-end=\"1893\">redeviennent attractives<\/strong> :<\/p><ul data-start=\"1896\" data-end=\"2359\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"1896\" data-end=\"2003\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"1898\" data-end=\"2003\"><strong data-start=\"1898\" data-end=\"1920\">Obligations d&rsquo;\u00c9tat<\/strong> : int\u00e9r\u00eat croissant pour les OAT fran\u00e7aises \u00e0 10 ans (autour de 2,7 % d\u00e9but 2025).<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2004\" data-end=\"2097\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2006\" data-end=\"2097\"><strong data-start=\"2006\" data-end=\"2052\">Obligations d&rsquo;entreprises Investment Grade<\/strong> : bon compromis entre rendement et s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2098\" data-end=\"2359\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2100\" data-end=\"2359\"><strong data-start=\"2100\" data-end=\"2152\">Produits structur\u00e9s \u00e0 capital garanti ou prot\u00e9g\u00e9<\/strong>, comme la <em data-start=\"2163\" data-end=\"2209\">Note Taux Fixe Rappelable Premium Avril 2025<\/em>, offrent une alternative d\u00e9fensive (rendement max 4,71 % annuel sur 12 ans \u2013 source Cr\u00e9dit Agricole CIB)\u200b.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2361\" data-end=\"2450\"><strong data-start=\"2361\" data-end=\"2372\">\u00c0 noter<\/strong> : la duration doit \u00eatre ma\u00eetris\u00e9e selon les anticipations de baisse des taux.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"2452\" data-end=\"2455\" \/><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"2457\" data-end=\"2502\">\ud83c\udfe0 Immobilier : s\u00e9lectivit\u00e9 indispensable<\/h3><ul data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"2794\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"2624\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2505\" data-end=\"2624\"><strong data-start=\"2505\" data-end=\"2520\">R\u00e9sidentiel<\/strong> : baisse des prix continue dans les grandes villes (effet taux), mais r\u00e9silience en zones p\u00e9riurbaines.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2625\" data-end=\"2794\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2627\" data-end=\"2794\"><strong data-start=\"2627\" data-end=\"2635\">SCPI<\/strong> : adaptation en cours des rendements ; certaines SCPI d\u2019entreprise revoient leur strat\u00e9gie vers l\u2019Europe du Sud ou les usages alternatifs (logistique, sant\u00e9).<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2796\" data-end=\"2880\"><strong data-start=\"2796\" data-end=\"2814\">\u00c0 surveiller :<\/strong> le risque de liquidit\u00e9 en cas de baisse de valorisation continue.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"2882\" data-end=\"2885\" \/><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"2887\" data-end=\"2918\">\ud83d\udfe8 Or et mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res<\/h3><ul data-start=\"2919\" data-end=\"3251\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"2919\" data-end=\"3037\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"2921\" data-end=\"3037\"><strong data-start=\"2921\" data-end=\"2929\">L\u2019or<\/strong> d\u00e9passe les 2 100 $\/oz, soutenu par l\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique et les achats massifs des banques centrales.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3038\" data-end=\"3148\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3040\" data-end=\"3148\"><strong data-start=\"3040\" data-end=\"3051\">\u00c9nergie<\/strong> : volatilit\u00e9 sur le p\u00e9trole (WTI entre 75 et 90 $), gaz naturel toujours sous tension en Europe.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3149\" data-end=\"3251\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3151\" data-end=\"3251\"><strong data-start=\"3151\" data-end=\"3174\">M\u00e9taux strat\u00e9giques<\/strong> : la demande li\u00e9e \u00e0 la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique (cuivre, lithium) reste forte.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"3253\" data-end=\"3256\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"3258\" data-end=\"3293\">\ud83c\udf0d Analyse par zone g\u00e9ographique<\/h2><div class=\"overflow-x-auto contain-inline-size\"><table data-start=\"3295\" data-end=\"3819\"><thead data-start=\"3295\" data-end=\"3348\"><tr data-start=\"3295\" data-end=\"3348\"><th data-start=\"3295\" data-end=\"3311\">Zone<\/th><th data-start=\"3311\" data-end=\"3335\">Croissance 2025 (FMI)<\/th><th data-start=\"3335\" data-end=\"3348\">Tendances<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody data-start=\"3404\" data-end=\"3819\"><tr data-start=\"3404\" data-end=\"3482\"><td><strong data-start=\"3406\" data-end=\"3413\">USA<\/strong><\/td><td>2,1 %<\/td><td>Reprise en douceur, emploi solide<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3483\" data-end=\"3566\"><td><strong data-start=\"3485\" data-end=\"3498\">Zone euro<\/strong><\/td><td>0,9 %<\/td><td>Faible croissance, inflation en baisse<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3567\" data-end=\"3651\"><td><strong data-start=\"3569\" data-end=\"3578\">Chine<\/strong><\/td><td>4,5 %<\/td><td>Rebond limit\u00e9 par le secteur immobilier<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3652\" data-end=\"3722\"><td><strong data-start=\"3654\" data-end=\"3662\">Inde<\/strong><\/td><td>6,5 %<\/td><td>Moteur \u00e9mergent dynamique<\/td><\/tr><tr data-start=\"3723\" data-end=\"3819\"><td><strong data-start=\"3725\" data-end=\"3739\">Am. Latine<\/strong><\/td><td>2,3 %<\/td><td>Soutenue par les exportations de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"3821\" data-end=\"3824\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"3826\" data-end=\"3880\">\ud83c\udfe6 Banques centrales : cap sur la d\u00e9tente mon\u00e9taire<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3882\" data-end=\"3977\">La Fed et la BCE ont atteint le pic de leurs hausses de taux fin 2024. Les march\u00e9s anticipent :<\/p><ul data-start=\"3978\" data-end=\"4140\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3978\" data-end=\"4032\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3980\" data-end=\"4032\"><strong data-start=\"3980\" data-end=\"4005\">2 \u00e0 3 baisses de taux<\/strong> par la Fed d\u2019ici fin 2025.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"4033\" data-end=\"4140\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4035\" data-end=\"4140\">Une attitude plus prudente de la <strong data-start=\"4068\" data-end=\"4075\">BCE<\/strong>, qui reste pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e par les d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres entre \u00c9tats membres.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4142\" data-end=\"4242\">Ces \u00e9volutions pourraient redonner du souffle aux actifs longs (obligations, valeurs de croissance).<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"4244\" data-end=\"4247\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"4249\" data-end=\"4275\">\u26a0\ufe0f Risques \u00e0 surveiller<\/h2><ul data-start=\"4277\" data-end=\"4489\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"4277\" data-end=\"4353\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4279\" data-end=\"4353\"><strong data-start=\"4279\" data-end=\"4295\">G\u00e9opolitique<\/strong> : \u00e9lections US, guerre en Ukraine, tensions Chine-Ta\u00efwan.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"4354\" data-end=\"4403\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4356\" data-end=\"4403\"><strong data-start=\"4356\" data-end=\"4389\">Risque de r\u00e9cession technique<\/strong> en zone euro.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"4404\" data-end=\"4489\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4406\" data-end=\"4489\"><strong data-start=\"4406\" data-end=\"4425\">Effets diff\u00e9r\u00e9s<\/strong> des hausses de taux pass\u00e9es sur les entreprises et les m\u00e9nages.<\/p><\/li><\/ul><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"4491\" data-end=\"4494\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"4496\" data-end=\"4534\">\ud83d\udccc Notre recommandation strat\u00e9gique<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4536\" data-end=\"4654\">\ud83d\udd37 Diversifier entre classes d\u2019actifs, tout en ajustant l\u2019exposition selon votre horizon et votre tol\u00e9rance au risque.<\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4656\" data-end=\"4766\">\ud83d\udd36 Favoriser les fonds obligataires de qualit\u00e9 et les produits \u00e0 capital prot\u00e9g\u00e9 pour la composante d\u00e9fensive.<\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4768\" data-end=\"4892\">\ud83d\udd37 Rechercher une <strong data-start=\"4786\" data-end=\"4835\">exposition s\u00e9lective \u00e0 la croissance mondiale<\/strong> : zones \u00e9mergentes, th\u00e9matiques sectorielles innovantes.<\/p><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"4894\" data-end=\"4897\" \/><h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"4899\" data-end=\"4958\">Pour aller plus loin : contactez votre conseiller AVEFI<\/h3><hr class=\"\" data-start=\"4960\" data-end=\"4963\" \/><h2 class=\"\" data-start=\"4965\" data-end=\"4986\">\u26a0 Mentions l\u00e9gales<\/h2><p class=\"\" data-start=\"4988\" data-end=\"5249\"><strong data-start=\"4988\" data-end=\"5093\">Publication informative et publicitaire \u2013 ne constitue pas un conseil en investissement personnalis\u00e9.<\/strong><br data-start=\"5093\" data-end=\"5096\" \/>Pour toute question ou conseil adapt\u00e9 \u00e0 votre situation personnelle, contactez-nous.<br data-start=\"5180\" data-end=\"5183\" \/><strong data-start=\"5183\" data-end=\"5201\">D\u00e9sinscription<\/strong> : <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5204\" data-end=\"5249\">contact@avefi.com<\/a><\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"5251\" data-end=\"5497\">\ud83d\udccd <strong data-start=\"5254\" data-end=\"5298\">Avefi \u2013 Conseil en Gestion de Patrimoine<\/strong><br data-start=\"5298\" data-end=\"5301\" \/>18 bis rue Am\u00e9lie \u2013 75007 Paris<br data-start=\"5332\" data-end=\"5335\" \/>\ud83d\udcde 01 77 13 78 35<br data-start=\"5352\" data-end=\"5355\" \/>\u2709\ufe0f <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5358\" data-end=\"5375\">contact@avefi.com<\/a> \u2013 <a class=\"cursor-pointer\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5378\" data-end=\"5395\">gestion@avefi.com<\/a><br data-start=\"5395\" data-end=\"5398\" \/>\ud83d\ude87 M\u00e9tro ligne 8 (La Tour-Maubourg) \/ RER C (Invalides)<br data-start=\"5453\" data-end=\"5456\" \/>\ud83c\udf10 <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.avefi.com\" target=\"_new\" rel=\"noopener\" data-start=\"5459\" data-end=\"5497\">www.avefi.com<\/a><\/p><p class=\"\" data-start=\"5499\" data-end=\"5700\"><strong data-start=\"5499\" data-end=\"5700\">Attention : Investir comporte des risques, les rendements pass\u00e9s ne garantissent pas les performances futures. Il est recommand\u00e9 de bien comprendre les caract\u00e9ristiques du produit avant d&rsquo;investir.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3533"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3533\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3536,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3533\/revisions\/3536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/avefi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}